According the NRF, we are expected to spend $29.1 billion for Valentine’s Day in 2026. “Valentine’s Day underscores the value of relationships…” Prosper Insights & Analytics Executive Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist said. The growth in spending this year “is driven by middle- and high-income shoppers who are expanding their gift lists to include friends, co-workers and even pets in addition to loved ones,”NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said. 

When we were in elementary school, most of us have fond memories of receiving cards and candy on every February 14^th. We would bring a decorated shoe-box to school and by the end of the day, it would be filled with sweet notes from our classmates and lots of candy. And now as parents, you may have just helped your kids prepare at least cards for their classes like me! The tradition roars on.

But how many of us knew then, or know now, the history of Valentine’s Day? Or how big Valentine’s Day business really is? Let’s explore.

A Muddled History of Valentine’s Day

The history of Valentine’s Day is shrouded in mystery – and some would say its origins are anything but romantic. But most historians agree that today’s holiday can trace its roots through both Christian and Roman history.

Many historians suggest that the ancient Romans are responsible for our modern Valentine’s Day because Emperor Claudius II executed two men – both happened to be named Valentine – on February 14^th of different years in the 3rd century. Legend suggests that one of the Valentines, a priest, performed marriages in secret despite the fact Claudius had outlawed marriage for young men because he decided that single men made better soldiers than those with wives. When Claudius discovered that Valentine was performing marriages, he was put to death.

Other historians suggest that the Christian church may have decided to place St. Valentine’s feast day in the middle of February to “Christianize” celebration of Lupercalia, which was a fertility festival – as well as a pagan one – dedicated to the Roman god of Agriculture, Faunus.

The Business of Valentine’s Day

No matter your historical perspective, no one can argue that in 1913, Valentine’s Day forever changed when a Kansas City-based firm named Hallmark Cards began mass-producing Valentine’s Day cards.

And today, Valentine’s Day is huge business:

• • According to the National Retail Federation, consumers in the U.S. will spend an estimated $29.1 billion on gifts for Valentine’s Day, up from $27.5 billion the previous year.
  • 35% of consumers plan to spend money on their PET! Which sounded crazy to me until I realized I have Valentine’s Day theme tennis calls for my dogs, so guilty as charged!
  • Even those who will not specifically celebrate the occasion, 31% will still spend money to mark it in some other way (self-care or getting togther with friends or family).